LONDON — Keir Starmer’s former Commons seat is open and Zack Polanski is pouring resources into turning the Labour stronghold of Holborn and St. Pancras green.
The leader of the left‑wing, populist Green Party looks set to be formally chosen to stand in the Oct. 8 contest on Thursday night, and activists say they flooded constituents with leaflets — Polanski claimed 80,000 were delivered in just two hours on Sunday.
Labour is fighting hard to hold the seat. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband — a well‑known figure on Labour’s left who backed a fresh round of trade restrictions on Israel this week — has already visited to boost canvassers, days after the former prime minister announced he would step down as MP.
Holborn and St. Pancras has returned a Labour MP since the constituency was created in 1983. The Greens would need to overturn Starmer’s 11,572‑vote majority.
For the main parties battling to replace Starmer, the stakes are high.
What’s at stake for Labour?
This is Andy Burnham’s first by‑election test since becoming prime minister over the summer. Holding Holborn and St. Pancras would show Labour’s image has been separated from Starmer’s unpopularity and that voters are willing to back Burnham’s government plan.
Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi‑Wali — who came to the U.K. as a refugee from Somalia — was selected on Wednesday night as Labour’s candidate, and her background could broaden Labour’s appeal locally.
Reform UK spokesperson Zia Yusuf attacked Abdi‑Wali’s background when she emerged as the frontrunner, and Labour will try to rally progressive voters to back her as a bulwark against Nigel Farage’s party.
Losing a seat long considered safe would be a real setback for Burnham and Labour, suggesting reputational damage from the Starmer era has lingered.
Sending a high‑profile figure like the foreign secretary into the seat while canvassers are already active speaks to how seriously Labour is treating what should historically be an easy hold for the red team.
What’s at stake for the Greens?
A Green victory would be notable. If Polanski becomes the party’s MP, it would give the Greens a national platform in the House of Commons and allow them to argue momentum remains on their side.
The Gorton and Denton by‑election win in February was the Greens’ first by‑election success. But since Burnham took office, Polanski has struggled to cut through, and a so‑called “Burnham bounce” has dented Green poll ratings.
Green candidate Geraldine Coggins’s disappointing third place in the Manchester mayoral race in July — despite a strong ground and social media effort — underlines the challenges the party faces.
A London win could reinvigorate the Greens and signal to Burnham that he risks losing left‑wing voters unless he heeds demands such as public ownership of water, a wealth tax and rent controls.
The fight
Holborn and St. Pancras has never been a straight Labour‑vs‑Green contest.
Back in 2024 the Greens did not mount a full campaign here. That year independent Andrew Feinstein — later linked with Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s Your Party project — posed the biggest threat to Starmer.
Feinstein ran on a pro‑Gaza, anti‑austerity platform and cut into the then‑PM’s majority, taking 18.9% of the vote.
Feinstein is not standing this time, which could see some of his former support flow to the Greens rather than Labour.
Even combined, Green and Feinstein‑aligned votes were 29% in the last general election compared with Starmer’s 49%. This time the Greens cannot present themselves as a simple protest vote against Starmer personally.
The student population could help the Greens if students return before the vote — parts of the seat contain numerous private and university halls — but tight deadlines mean most students may not be registered by the Sept. 22 deadline.
The constituency also has a sizeable Muslim community — around 20% — that both parties will try to win over.
In 2024 the war in Gaza pushed some voters away from Labour. Burnham has acknowledged the party’s position under Starmer was wrong and has adopted a firmer stance. Restrictions on buying goods from Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank were announced this week.
The battle lines
The by‑election could turn into a clash of national narratives. Greens argue that Burnham will become prime minister whatever the outcome and that Polanski in parliament would increase left‑wing pressure on the government.
Labour is selling Burnham’s vision for the country. “We can go out in this by‑election and really talk with pride about what Andy’s new government is doing,” Miliband told campaigners. “He has a big argument about how the country needs to change; now it’s up to us in Holborn and St. Pancras to win back the progressive voters.”
Abdi‑Wali told the Camden New Journal in August she did not think Starmer should step down as MP and described him as “really inspirational.”
Locally, the seat faces a housing crisis, entrenched deprivation in parts, and the long delay and disruption from the stalled HS2 project.
Candidates will need to explain on doorsteps how they would tackle these problems. Details should surface in hustings and in the coming weeks, but for now the first round of the contest looks set to be about which party can sell the most convincing message of hope to voters.
