BRUSSELS — NATO’s top commanders meet Saturday for a discreet vote that will shape how the alliance readies itself amid mounting tensions in Europe and the persistent transatlantic shuffle over who should take the lead.
The alliance’s 32 chiefs of defense staff will choose the next chair of NATO’s military committee in Copenhagen in a largely secret ballot — a choice between Germany’s Gen. Carsten Breuer and Canada’s Gen. Jennie Carignan.
“NATO is at a decisive moment and in a demanding spot — there’s a large conventional war raging in Europe and NATO is once again bending itself toward a more robust, more European posture,” said Janne Kuusela, Permanent Secretary at the Finnish defense ministry. “That of course means … we need the best possible individuals to fill these positions.”
Though little-known outside defence circles, NATO’s military committee is the alliance’s top military authority, with its chair expected to provide candid military advice to allies — weighing feasibility, financing and capabilities of potential operations. The chair oversees dozens of NATO military working groups and brokers consensus on military judgments.
The job demands navigating both military and political leadership across the alliance without appearing to take sides, said Eleonora Russell, spokesperson for former chair Adm. Rob Bauer. “You have to be … an extremely good listener,” Russell said, “but then you also have to also have a very strong backbone.”
Germany’s Breuer, whom Berlin announced as a candidate in February, is widely seen as the front-runner, according to a NATO diplomat and two European national security officials who spoke on the record only anonymously because of the sensitivity of the contest.
Berlin has become Europe’s leading defence spender, the officials noted, and Washington has in recent years encouraged Germany to step up into leadership roles as U.S. political will for deep engagement in Europe has wavered. Frictions between Ottawa and Washington could complicate Carignan’s bid, the officials added.
That support was visible in Washington on Jul. 23, when Breuer briefed Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby on Germany’s new military strategy. Colby later called the strategy “historic” and “highly laudable” and said Germany was positioning itself as “a key leader of Europe’s conventional defense” in a post on X.
“Both candidates are exceptional military leaders,” said another military official, who suggested it may now be more important to have a European at the helm as NATO attempts — rightly, in their view — to take greater responsibility for its own defence.
Breuer’s campaign emphasizes his leadership role for that European-driven NATO effort and his close ties with continental counterparts since becoming Germany’s chief of defence in 2023.
Carignan, Canada’s top general since 2024, has pitched herself on reinvigorating the military committee and on preserving transatlantic unity inside NATO. The alliance has repeatedly been buffeted by public disputes with the U.S. presidency in recent years, a reminder that political winds in Washington can complicate alliance cohesion.
Germany’s defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for Canada’s defence ministry said Carignan’s “candidacy reflects Canada’s enduring commitment to NATO and to strengthening collective defence and transatlantic security.”
Out of sight, out of mind
The campaign moves mostly behind closed doors — down to the blind vote itself.
“The whole point is for this to be a military group of professionals who trust each other,” Russell said, arguing that on a military level you need boundless loyalty, and knowing exactly who voted for whom would undercut that trust.
To preserve that trust, the vote stops once a majority — 17 votes — is reached, leaving the detailed tally unknown, one NATO official said. Some chiefs of defence are under strict orders from their ministries to back one candidate or the other, while others are free to decide for themselves.
Behind the scenes the candidates have lobbied counterparts through letters, in-person pitches with NATO ambassadors, at security summits and in calls to ministries, the officials said.
Since Berlin nominated Breuer, he has travelled frequently to NATO capitals — visits in recent months included Albania, North Macedonia, the U.S., Slovenia, Latvia and Estonia. Breuer has used those stops and meetings with fellow military leaders to press Germany’s case, according to a person familiar with the effort.
The next military committee chair is expected to take over from Italy’s Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone next July, the same NATO official said.
